WASHINGTON: U.S. beef prices rose 15.0% over the past year, outpacing many grocery staples as cattle supplies tightened across the supply chain. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the year over year increase in its January Consumer Price Index data released Feb. 13, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture has documented a smaller national cattle herd heading into 2026.
The BLS report showed broad increases across common cuts, with uncooked ground beef up 17.2% from a year earlier, uncooked beef roasts up 15.0%, and uncooked beef steaks up 12.9%. BLS retail price series also reflected higher supermarket prices for ground products, including 100% ground beef and 100% ground chuck, both posting double digit gains from January 2025 to January 2026.
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said the U.S. inventory of cattle and calves totaled 86.2 million head as of Jan. 1, 2026, down slightly from a year earlier. The agency reported 27.6 million beef cows, down 1%, and a 2025 calf crop estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2%. Cattle on feed totaled 13.8 million head, down 3%, pointing to fewer animals in the near term pipeline.
The reduction follows a multi year decline from the most recent national peak. USDA data show the herd reached 94.7 million head in 2019 before contracting in subsequent years. Drought conditions have remained a recurring constraint for pasture and forage across major cattle regions, with the national drought status dashboard showing 46.6% of the Lower 48 states in drought as of Feb. 10, 2026.
Herd contraction tightens supply chain
Processing companies have also cited limited cattle availability as they adjust operations. Cargill said it will permanently close its beef processing facility in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, affecting 221 jobs. The company said the plant, which produces fresh and ground beef products and does not slaughter cattle, will stop production in mid April and close by the end of May 2026, with some production shifting to other North American facilities.
Cross border livestock flows have faced additional constraints tied to animal health controls. U.S. officials have maintained restrictions on certain cattle imports from Mexico since July amid concerns linked to outbreaks of the New World screwworm in parts of Mexico. USDA has said the pest is not currently present in the United States, and federal and state officials have expanded prevention and response efforts along the Texas border, including a sterile fly dispersal center in Edinburg.
Policy steps target ground beef inputs
The White House said President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Feb. 6 to expand access to tariff free imports of lean beef trimmings from Argentina used in hamburger production. The fact sheet said the action permits an additional 80,000 metric tons per year in 2026, allocated in four quarterly tranches of 20,000 metric tons, under the tariff rate quota structure for that product category.
USDA’s Economic Research Service has projected continued pressure on consumer beef prices in 2026, forecasting beef and veal prices to rise 9.4% over the year. In its January outlook for livestock markets, ERS projected 2026 beef production at 25.735 billion pounds, about 1% below 2025, and adjusted its trade outlook by raising the import forecast while lowering the export forecast, reflecting tighter domestic supplies and shifting global market conditions. – By Content Syndication Services.